The exact card comes first. Quality changes slowly; price, liquidity and evidence can change quickly.
Five separate readings. No combined investment score.
Q, V and L are provisional rubric scores out of 100, not probabilities, price guides or demonstrated investment returns. Missing inputs are displayed as unknown. A blank is not zero. Scores never borrow graded transactions to complete a raw valuation.
Q
Quality
Subject durability (35%), insert-franchise strength (25%), card significance (15%), verified scarcity (10%), visual/collector appeal (15%). Subject and franchise classifications are explicitly editorial. Standard inserts receive a 60 significance rubric; checklist-marked rookies receive 80, independently of subject durability. An exact photo in a recognized franchise receives a provisional 75 visual rubric; no buyer survey is inferred. Core assessments missing means Q stays blank. Unknown scarcity is omitted and disclosed, with remaining weights normalized. No price, recent heat or affiliate input enters Q.
Scarcity points require numeric print-run or pack-odds evidence in an attached official Topps/Panini release source. A rarity label, unnumbered card or seller claim does not establish a print run. Pack odds do not prove total production. Unknown remains unknown.
V
Valuation
Own price history (30%), same-athlete alternatives (20%), same-release/insert/quality-cohort alternatives (20%), prospect vs legend alternatives (10%), raw-vs-graded economics (5%), margin of safety (15%). Available factors are normalized; the scored-factor count is disclosed. V needs at least three exact raw completed sales in the past 180 days and at least one supported factor. It can remain blank even with three sales. V based only on historical/relative prices is provisional, not attractiveness at an executable live price.
Own history compares medians of chronological halves, requiring two sales per half. Peer factors require at least two independently valued alternatives within 10 Q points. Prospect-vs-legend comparisons are descriptive. A 10-point supply reserve applies during the first 180 days after release, and whenever release timing is unresolved. New supply bars watchlist entry until normalized. Missing grading fees, gem probability and condition keep grading economics unscored.
L
Liquidity
Observed exact raw sales per 30 days (35%), transaction count in 180 days (30%), fresh active-vs-completed spread when available (15%), distinct sale-date depth (20%). Frequency uses at least a 30-day window. Four observed sales per month, ten transactions and ten distinct dates reach their respective maxima. These are observed coverage proxies; unique buyers and full-market volume remain unknown. Active asks are supply signals, not completed comps or proof of a bid/ask spread. Fewer than three recent raw sales leaves L blank.
Evidence and freshness are hard gates.
E grade
Exact completed transactions in last 180 days, same format and condition
A
10+
B
5–9
C
3–4
DATA GAP
Fewer than 3 · V — · WAIT FOR THIRD SALE / THIRD RECENT SALE
F measures age of the latest qualifying exact raw sale: FRESH ≤45 days, CURRENT 46–90, AGING 91–180, STALE >180. No sale means UNKNOWN. Historical E is disclosed separately; it cannot override recent evidence. STALE C cards cannot receive BUY without fresh market verification. This implementation withholds BUY/OFFER for every stale card, and for every card without verified current landed cost and live supply.
Exact identity and source separation.
Year, product, insert, card number, subject, base/parallel, raw/graded and condition remain distinct. Market records must match checklist identity. Raw as recorded is one broad condition bucket; subcondition economics are unresolved. Future-dated, nonpositive, invalid, duplicate, active or explicitly unverified sales are excluded. Original marketplace transaction URLs deduplicate a sale; shared aggregator pages deduplicate on date, price and condition. Aggregator coverage cannot establish unique buyer counts.
Official checklist/odds evidence appears separately from marketplace transactions on card pages. Historical vendor guides are retained as source references, never substituted into V, evidence counts or target entries. Active bids, starting bids and asks do not become completed-sale values.
States, entries and portfolio roles.
BUY / OFFER require verified evidence plus a currently verified executable price, exact condition and landed-cost economics. The indexed data lacks that package, so no BUY/OFFER is issued. WATCH requires Q ≥75, V ≥55 with at least two supported valuation factors, L ≥25, 3+ recent exact raw sales, latest ≤90 days, price dispersion ≤80% of median and mature supply. WAIT marks missing recent evidence. PASS requires supported low quality and poor valuation at a comparable current ask; otherwise NO VERIFIED EDGE is retained.
Watch entries are conditional all-in ceilings: recent completed median less 20–30% for durable subjects or 30–40% for growth subjects. These fixed safety buffers are transparent model assumptions, not observed prices or optimized returns. Taxes, shipping and fees must fit inside the ceiling. Invalidation covers lost evidence, aging, lower realized prices, rising supply and identity/condition failures.
Blue Chip denotes high-quality established franchises; Quality Value denotes durable quality with a price watch; Growth and Speculation distinguish subject durability; Relative Value needs supported same-athlete alternatives. Special Situation requires a documented catalyst and is currently unassigned. Roles do not imply a recommended allocation.
Trust, outcomes and incentives.
The watchlist selects at most five candidates, one per subject, across the whole catalog by Q, then V, then L. No blended score is displayed. Empty is a valid result. Dated calls retain exact evidence, confidence, model entry, invalidation and open outcomes. Later returns need dated realized evidence and costs; no automatic outcome or backfilled success is inferred.
Affiliate economics, ownership, inventory and sponsors do not affect scores, states, ordering or conclusions. Marketplace links may earn a commission at no extra cost to buyers. PULLED is the independent intelligence layer; Collector Pitlane holdings do not determine its opinions.