EXACT CARD · CONDITIONAL OFFER · RECHECKVictor Wembanyama 2025-26 Topps Chrome Basketball Ultra Violet UV-8 card
2025/26 Topps Chrome Basketball · Ultra Violet All-Stars UV-8

CASE 002 · BASKETBALL · INVESTMENT CASE

Victor Wembanyama
UV-8

CURRENT VERDICTOFFERPARTIAL EVIDENCE · CHECKED 2026-08-27

The money and interest are real, but the $2,285 ask is not the recommendation. PULLED.'s conditional OFFER ceiling is $1,375 after exit friction; the listing, condition and buyer-specific landed cost must be rechecked before action.

The eBay link may earn PULLED. a commission. That relationship has zero weight in the verdict.

THE MARKET

Yes.

This is the premium lane PULLED. should cover: a globally followed young star, a recognizable art SSP, five exact raw sales inside 90 days and a fresh $2,995 completed sale on Aug. 25.

THE DEAL

Offer ≤ $1,375.

The money and interest are real, but the $2,285 ask is not the recommendation. PULLED.'s conditional OFFER ceiling is $1,375 after exit friction; the listing, condition and buyer-specific landed cost must be rechecked before action.

01 · THE ECONOMICS

Attention is not margin.

USD display · U.S.-local scenario · buyer-specific taxes excluded
ITEM PRICE$2,285BEST OFFER
WATCHER SNAPSHOT20PARTIAL · NOT FAIR VALUE
MODELED LANDED$2,313INCLUDING FX RESERVE
CONSERVATIVE EXIT$2,500WEIGHTED 35TH PERCENTILE
EXPECTED NET$2,056PROBABILITY-WEIGHTED
EXPECTED PROFIT-$349.23-15% RISK-ADJUSTED ROI
60-DAY SALE46%68 MODELED DAYS TO CASH
MODEL CEILING$1,37540% THIN-MARKET TARGET

02 · WHY IT COULD WORK

The collectible case.

01

A $2,995 exact raw sale on Aug. 25 provides a fresh executed-price signal, not an asking-price story.

02

Five exact raw sales inside 90 days put the card well above PULLED.'s three-sale evidence floor.

03

The latest indexed eBay page showed 20 watchers at $2,285 or Best Offer—meaningful marketplace attention, clearly labeled stale until rechecked.

03 · WHY THE ASK FAILS

The listing case.

01

The exact listing and watcher count could not be freshly reverified, so PULLED. will not call the supply live.

02

Five sales against five indexed active listings model only a 46% probability of sale inside 60 days.

03

After a 13% selling fee and explicit shipping, return, carrying and uncertainty reserves, expected profit is about -$349 at the indexed ask.

04 · EXACT TRANSACTIONS

5 sales. No borrowed comps.

Active asks and watcher counts stay outside the valuation distribution.

05 · MARKET COVERAGE

What we know—and what we do not.

A missing market is a stored result, not a silent assumption.
VERIFIEDOTHER · OFFICIAL IDENTITY

Topps checklist

Official 2025/26 Topps Chrome Basketball checklist identifies Victor Wembanyama as Ultra Violet All-Stars UV-8.

INSPECT SOURCE ↗
PARTIALUSA · ATTENTION

eBay

Latest indexed exact raw listing showed 20 watchers at $2,285 or Best Offer. The index was roughly three weeks old, so the attention count is stale and cannot be presented as live.

INSPECT SOURCE ↗
PARTIALUSA · ACTIVE SUPPLY

eBay

Five exact-card fixed-price results were present on the latest indexed category page, but a fresh live listing check was blocked. Exact item 366571382577 must be reverified before action.

INSPECT SOURCE ↗
PARTIALUSA · COMPLETED SALES

SportsCardsPro · underlying eBay titles

Five dated exact raw sales inside 90 days were visible, including $2,995 on Aug. 25. Transaction photos and independent source breadth remain incomplete.

INSPECT SOURCE ↗
MISSINGEUROPE · ACTIVE SUPPLY

eBay Europe / Vinted

No Europe-located exact raw listing was attached to this case.

NO SOURCE ATTACHED
MISSINGEUROPE · COMPLETED SALES

eBay Europe

No Europe-specific executed-price row was verified.

NO SOURCE ATTACHED
MISSINGOTHER · COMPLETED SALES

Independent auction archive

No second completed-result source was added.

NO SOURCE ATTACHED
VERIFIEDOTHER · FX

European Central Bank

EUR 1 = USD 1.1645 reference rate used for calculator normalization.

INSPECT SOURCE ↗

THE INVALIDATION

What changes the call.

Do not offer until the exact listing, watcher count and raw condition are freshly verified. Hard ceiling: $1,375 including item price only; reduce it for buyer tax or new condition risk. A seller counter above the ceiling remains a pass.

MODEL NOTE

USD display. The exact-listing calculator was run in EUR using the ECB 27 Aug 2026 reference rate of EUR 1 = USD 1.1645, then converted back for display. The $1,375 ceiling uses a 40% thin-market target return, 13% selling fee and explicit shipping, return, carrying and uncertainty reserves. The board uses a 12–24 month collector horizon; the current $2,285 ask still fails. Attention never enters fair value.

READ THE FULL MARKET DESK METHOD ↗